Stats should dictate strategy

BRENDAN VENTER interprets key Rugby Championship stats and explains what it means from a Springbok perspective ahead of their first World Cup fixture.

Professional rugby coaches take statistics very seriously because the accumulated data tells a story.

While World Cup stats can be skewed when some teams play against much weaker opposition, what makes the Rugby Championship stats courtesy of the Vodacom Rugby App so relevant is that they were collected from Grade A matches against top teams. So that is what I will look at below.

South Africa made the most turnovers during the 2015 Rugby Championship. According to the Vodacom Rugby App, they completed 25 turnovers to Australia’s 21 and New Zealand’s 20. That is quite substantial and I believe turnovers are going to prove the Boks’ biggest trump card at the World Cup.

With the likes of Bismarck du Plessis, Francois Louw, Schalk Burger and Duane Vermeulen, as a forward pack, those four are exceptionally effective over the ball. Heyneke Meyer might actually be saying to himself, “In terms of our turnover ability, I have got something which other teams don’t possess.”

While South Africa ruled the floor during the Rugby Championship, they made the third-lowest number of ball carries (332) yet coughed up the most handling errors (47). When the Springboks carried the ball they were guilty of handling errors, which made them very vulnerable. Logic would therefore dictate that they consider kicking more, thus limiting their handling errors.

Kicking has always proved a huge component of World Cups. The fact of the matter is that every team that won the tournament kicked the most. I heard Heyneke say the Boks are not necessarily going to kick, which is absolute rubbish. His team is definitely going to kick the proverbial leather off the ball. In Fourie du Preez, the Boks boast one of the best kicking No9s in the world.

I also find it strange that Michael Cheika has stated the Wallabies want to keep the ball in hand, because the Vodacom Rugby App stats reveal Australia kicked the most from hand – 56 times – during the abbreviated Rugby Championship.

While the number of kicks from hand were much of a muchness among the three teams, delving deeper into stats can debunk myths and perceptions.

We must understand that the primary objective of tactical kicking is to gain territorial advantage. Teams that boast the ability to go from their 22 to the opposition 22 in one big swing of the boot will always be the most successful.
Ahead of Saturday’s Test, I would advise the players to have a go with ball in hand, but only once they have gained territorial ascendancy and are in Japan’s final-third.
It’s not about how many times the Springboks kick the ball, but instead whether they play the game in the right areas of the field.

It’s how you execute when you’re in prime real estate that separates the contenders from the pretenders. For every team, that will prove the primary challenge.
If I was coaching a team at the World Cup, the most crucial statistic I would look out for after each match is the territorial percentage. If you dominate the territorial battle, the reality is that you will win more matches than you lose.

A word of warning: if South Africa plays expansive, airy-fairy rugby from the start against Japan in Brighton, they will be in for the surprise of their lives. If the Springboks even remotely underestimate the Brave Blossoms they will pay the price. Eddie Jones is a well-organised coach. He will have a plan firmly in place.